That got me to thinking about who really are the 5 best QB's in the league in any given season, and which QB's have been considered among the 5 best the most times. I thought this might be an interesting way to try to come up with a top-12 list. So I did just that. But after compiling the list, it still didn't seem quite right to me. I think when people think about the best QB's in the league, they also, at least subconsciously, think about whether is winning Super Bowls or not. So I decided to also give a QB a bonus for playing in, or winning, a Super Bowl. That gave me a list I felt was more representative.
Many times a veteran QB may be perceived as one of the best in the league, but statistically is no longer performing at that level. Tom Brady in 2018 is an example of such a QB. He was still playing quite well by this point, but statistically he ranked as the 9th-best QB of 2018.
So I will start off by showing you the 12 QB's that made my list, using this method. Then, I will break down how this was calculated.
Method
I was not looking to create a rigorous calculation here. I just wanted to come up with a relatively quick way to use actual statistical production in each season to estimate who the best 5 QB's were from each season. So I ended up using 5 statistical categories that I think are the things that generally impact how we perceive how good a QB is: Passing Yards, Passing TD's, Passer Rating, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) and regular season wins.
For those unfamiliar, ANY/A is similar to a passer rating, but has a different weight for TD's and Interceptions, and also factors in sacks taken by the QB. Also, since we don't have sack data before 1969, ANY/A was not used in my calculations for 1966-1968.
I took each QB's ranking in each of the 5 categories each season, and gave them points based on ranking. If a QB led the league in passing yards, he got 10 points. Second place was 9 points, etc. Add these up for each category, and a player will have a score up to 50 points in each season (40 points for 1966-1968.)
The 5 highest scorers in each season each get credit for one season of being a top 5 QB. As you can see above, Peyton Manning did this 15 times in his career.
Results
1966 - Frank Ryan (32 points), Don Meredith (27), Len Dawson (26), Sonny Jurgensen (23) and Bart Starr (20). John Hadl and Johnny Unitas missed the cut by 3 points.
1967 - We had a tie for the 5th spot, so 1967 actually had 6 QB's make the top 5 list. Quite the contradiction, but what can you do? They were Daryle Lamonica (29), Jurgensen (29), Unitas (25), Roman Gabriel (23), Frank Tarkenton (22) and Joe Namath (22). Norm Snead and Dawson were close.
1968 - Earl Morrall (33), Lamonica (25), Meredith (23), Hadl (23) and Dawson (18). Tarkenton and Namath were 2 points behind. This was the season that Namath guaranteed a win in the Super Bowl, but he finished outside the top 10 in TD's and passer rating.
1969 - Lamonica (41), Gabriel (33), Tarkenton (31), Morton (29), Jurgensen (27). Bill Nelson was the only one close to this list.
In 1969, I don't think people were thinking about a "Super Bowl era". They probably weren't even sure Super Bowls were going to continue, but the AFL-NFL merger was on track to being the following season. But after 1969, the top 12 QB's of the Super Bowl era would have been:
1. Daryle Lamonica, 3.5
1. Len Dawson, 3.5
3. Bart Starr, 3
3. Sonny Jurgensen, 3
5. Fran Tarkenton, 2.5
6. Don Meredith, 2
6. Joe Namath, 2
6. Roman Gabriel, 2
9. Earl Morrall, 1.5
4 players tied for 10th.
1970 - John Brodie (50), Tarkenton (34), Jurgensen (29), Lamonica (27) and Gabriel (22). Craig Morton missed by just one point. John Brodie had the first perfect score of this study.
1971 - Bob Griese (35), Roger Staubach (32), Dawson (31), Greg Landry (25) and Brodie (23). Hadl and Gabriel get honorable mentions.
1972 - Namath (31), Billy Kilmer (27), Tarkenton (27), Norm Snead (27) and Lamonica (26). Earl Morrall missed the cut by one point despite starting just 9 games for the undefeated Dolphins.
1973 - Hadl (39), Staubach (38), Tarkenton (34), Gabriel (33) and Ken Anderson (27). Bob Griese gets an honorable mention.
1974 - Ken Stabler (45), Anderson (37), Tarkenton (30), Jim Hart (27) and James Harris (20). Honorable mentions for Griese and Namath.
1975 - Tarkenton (45), Anderson (43), Bert Jones (28), Hart (27), Joe Ferguson (26). Terry Bradshaw was sixth, but still 4 points behind fifth.
1976 - Jones (48), Stabler (45), Hart (31), Tarkenton (29), Staubach (23). Bert Jones ranks as a top 5 QB for three seasons (1975-1977) and this 1976 season ranks as one of the era-adjusted seasons of all time. His career was cut short due to injuries, and is an intriguing "what if" of history.
1977 - Staubach (45), Griese (39), Jones (37), Stabler (27) and Bradshaw (26). Bradshaw makes the list for the first time, despite having already won 2 Super Bowls. As I was not old enough at the time, I don't know if Bradshaw would have been considered one of the best QB's ever at this point. Craig Morton missed the cut by 3 points.
1978 - Staubach (43), Bradshaw (39), Dan Fouts (34), Archie Manning (25) and Brian Sipe (20). Fran Tarkenton was one point behind in sixth.
1979 - Fouts (40), Staubach (40), Bradshaw (37), Jim Zorn (25), Steve Grogan (21). Joe Theismann, Stabler and Sipe were all with 2 points of making the list, but still missed the cut. Staubach may have been the best QB in the league in 1979, but retired at year's end.
So how did things look at the end of the decade of the 70's? These were the 12 best QB's of the Super Bowl era as of 1979:
1. Fran Tarkenton, 10
2. Roger Staubach, 9
3. Terry Bradshaw, 7
4. Daryle Lamonica, 5.5
5. Len Dawson, 4.5
6. Bob Griese, 4
6. Ken Stabler, 4
6. Roman Gabriel, 4
6. Sonny Jurgensen, 4
5 players tied for 10th
1980 - Sipe (43), Fouts (38), Ron Jaworski (38), Steve Bartkowski (38), Vince Ferragamo (27). Danny White is sixth, but a distant 10 points behind Ferragamo.
1981 - Fouts (44), Anderson (43), Joe Montana (25), Danny White (23), Bartkowski and Morton (18). Due to a tie, 6 guys make the list. And Ferguson, Tommy Kramer, Bradshaw and Richard Todd were all pretty close, though had much lower scores than usually get a QB into the top 5.
1982 - Fouts (45), Anderson (37), Montana (31), White (28), Theismann (28). Richard Todd was a distant 6th. This was the fourth straight season that Fouts ranked first or second by this method.
1983 - Theismann (41), Montana (35), Lynn Dickey (32), White (28), Dan Marino (18). Bartkowski was just one point behind.
1984 - Marino (50), Montana (39), Neil Lomax (37), Dave Krieg (27), Theismann, Dickey and Tony Eason (19). There were 7 top-5 QB's this year. Dan Marino becomes the second QB to have a perfect score of 50.
1985 - Marino (40), Ken O'Brien (40), Montana (32), Fouts (30), Esiason (25). John Elway finished 6th.
1986 - Marino (40), Esiason (37), Tommy Kramer (28), Bernie Kosar (24), Jay Schroeder (24). Honorable mention to Dave Krieg and Ken O'Brien. This makes 3 straight seasons at #1 for Marino.
1987 - Montana (44), Kosar (36), Marino (35), Lomax (24), John Elway (23). Doug Williams finished 6th while throwing less than half as many passes as any of the top 5, and he went on to win the Super Bowl.
1988 - Boomer Esiason (45), Jim Everett (40), Marino (23), Randall Cunningham (21), Krieg (19). Honorable mentions to Lomax, Phil Simms and Warren Moon.
1989 - Everett (45), Montana (40), Esiason (29), Don Majkowski (29), Mark Rypien (28). Honorable mention for Warren Moon.
Here are our top 12 QB's at the end of the 1980's:
1. Joe Montana, 11
2. Fran Tarkenton, 10
3. Roger Staubach, 9
4. Steve Grogan, 7
5. Dan Marino, 6.5
6. Dan Fouts, 6
7. Ken Anderson, 5.5
7. Daryle Lamonica, 5.5
9. Bob Griese, 4.5
10. Len Dawson, 4.5
11. Joe Theismann, 4.5
12. Boomer Esiason, 4.5
1990 - Moon (37), Montana (35), Jim Kelly (34), Steve DeBerg (32), Cunningham (25). Marino barely misses the cut.
1991 - Rypien (45), Kelly (43), Marino (29), Moon (25), Steve Young (22). Honorable mentions to Bernie Kosar and Chris Miller.
1992 - Young (48), Troy Aikman (36), Marino (34), Bobby Hebert (26), Kelly (24). Wade Wilson was 5 points back in 6th.
1993 - Young (46), Elway (37), Aikman (29), Kelly (21), Moon (20). Honorable mention to Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason. I believe this is the first season where all 5 QB's were elected to the HOF.
1994 - Young (47), Marino (38), Brett Favre (30), Drew Bledsoe (23), Krieg (18). Horoble mentions for Chris Chandler, Aikman and Everett. Bledsoe made the list strictly from his counting stats, as his rate stats were pretty rough. He threw 36 more passes than any QB ever had in a season.
1995 - Favre (47), Scott Mitchell (34), Erik Kramer (29), Aikman (24), Moon (20). 4 of these QB's played in the NFC Central division.
1996 - Favre (44), Elway (30), Vinny Testaverde (30), Bledsoe (26), Young (22). Honorable mention to Mark Brunell. After being the first pick in the draft, Vinny Testaverde finally played like one of the 5 best QB's in the league at age 33.
1997 - Favre (44), Jeff George (28), Elway (28), Bledsoe (27), Young (27). Three straight years at the top of the list for Favre, along with 3 MVP's during that time leave little doubt that he was the best QB in the league.
1998 - Cunningham (45), Young (41), Testaverde (35), Chandler (29), Favre (25). Elway finished in 6th place in his final year in the league.
1999 - Kurt Warner (49), Peyton Manning (41), Steve Beuerlein (36), Brad Johnson (33), George (23). Honorable mention to Rich Gannon. Kurt Warner came out of nowhere to put up one of the greatest passing seasons ever.
Through 1999, here are the top 12 QB's of the Super Bowl era:
1. Joe Montana, 12
2. Fran Tarkenton, 10
3. Dan Marino, 9.5
4. Roger Staubach, 9
5. Steve Young, 8
6. John Elway, 7.5
7. Terry Bradshaw, 7
8. Brett Favre, 6.5
9. Troy Aikman, 6
10. Jim Kelly, 6
11. Dan Fouts, 6
12. Daryle Lamonica, 5.5
12. Ken Anderson, 5.5
Daryle Lamonica is rarely considered an all-time great QB, mainly because his career consisted of only 6 seasons as a starter. But in those 6 seasons, he was amongst the 5 best QB's in the NFL (or AFL-NFL combined) for 5 of them, and as of 1999 he still ranked amongst the 12 best of the Super Bowl era.
2000 - Daunte Culpepper (36), Peyton Manning (35), Jeff Garcia (30), Gannon (23), Elvis Grbac (21), Warner (21). Honorable mention for Brian Griese.
2001 - Warner (50), Favre (41), Garcia (33), Gannon (31), Peyton Manning (21). Warner puts up the third perfect score. No honorable mentions here.
2002 - Gannon (40), Peyton Manning (30), Trent Green (23), Chad Pennington (22), Brad Johnson (21), Favre (21). Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins and Tom Brady get honorable mentions.
2003 - Peyton Manning (45), Green (37), Steve McNair (27), Matt Hasselbeck (24), Culpepper (21). Honorable mention for Favre. Manning and McNair split the MVP, but by this method Manning was much better. Tom Brady received MVP votes in 2003, but ranked 7th in this method. Strangely, it was his rate stats that were holding him back - not his counting stats.
2004 - Peyton Manning (45), Culpepper (37), McNabb (35), Favre (23), Drew Brees (23), Green (23). There were 6 players in the top 5 and Tom Brady finished in 7th - 2 points behind.
2005 - Peyton Manning (43), Carson Palmer (41), Brady (31), Hasselbeck (29), Green (22). For the first time, Tom Brady ranks among the best 5 QB's in the league.
2006 - Peyton Manning (46), Brees (39), Palmer (26), Bulger (21), Philip Rivers (20). This makes 4 straight seasons at the top for Manning, with all 4 seasons worth at least 43 points.
2007 - Tom Brady (50), Tony Romo (36), Peyton Manning (35), Favre (31), Ben Roethlisberger (26). Brady puts up the fourth perfect season.
2008 - Brees (36), Rivers (35), Warner (32), Peyton Manning (32), Pennington (24). Aaron Rodgers finished 6th with 20 points.
2009 - Brees (44), Peyton Manning (39), Favre (34), Rivers (32), Rodgers (31).
Top 12 QB's through 2009:
1. Peyton Manning, 12.5
2. Joe Montana, 12
3. Brett Favre, 11.5
4. Fran Tarkenton, 10
5. Dan Marino, 9.5
6. Roger Staubach, 9
7. Steve Young, 8
8. John Elway, 7.5
9. Terry Bradshaw, 7
10. Kurt Warner, 6
10. Dan Fouts, 6
10. Jim Kelly, 6
10. Troy Aikman, 6
2010 - Brady (43), Rivers (34), Rodgers (30), Brees (23), Peyton Manning (21).
2011 - Rodgers (45), Brees (45), Brady (42), Matthew Stafford (30), Eli Manning (24). Tony Romo was 2 points behind. This is Eli Manning's only appearance on the list.
2012 - Peyton Manning (42), Rodgers (34), Brady (34), Matt Ryan (30), Brees (26).
2013 - Peyton Manning (48), Brees (33), Rivers (26), Nick Foles (23), Russell Wilson (18). Honorable mentions for Andy Dalton and Josh McCown.
2014 - Rodgers (41), Peyton Manning (38), Roethlisberger (35), Romo (35), Andrew Luck (32).
2015 - Palmer (43), Brady (40), Wilson (27), Brees (25), Newton (24). Honorable mention for Andy Dalton.
2016 - Ryan (46), Rodgers (32), Brees (29), Brady (27), Dak Prescott (26).
2017 - Brady (40), Brees (32), Jared Goff (28), Carson Wentz (25), Alex Smith (24).
2018 - Patrick Mahomes (46), Brees (32), Goff (29), Ryan (29), Rivers (27).
